Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wynnstay Group Plc (WYN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.19 - $8.63$6.71
Multi-Stage$6.20 - $6.76$6.47
Blended Fair Value$6.59
Current Price$3.20
Upside106.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.29%8.15%0.170.170.140.130.120.120.110.100.100.09
YoY Growth--3.28%15.84%10.53%8.24%4.03%6.30%5.87%7.68%9.77%10.52%
Dividend Yield--5.42%4.36%2.36%2.66%4.23%4.17%2.59%2.08%1.74%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.021.260.76
Cash Retained (M)2.102.102.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.02-1.26-0.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.080.831.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.1623.1623.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Fair Value$5.19$6.71$8.63
Upside / Downside62.34%109.75%169.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.1010.4610.8311.2111.6112.0312.39
Payout Ratio79.23%81.39%83.54%85.69%87.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.008.519.059.6110.2010.8211.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate2.56%3.56%4.56%
Year 1 PV (M)7.707.787.85
Year 2 PV (M)7.417.557.70
Year 3 PV (M)7.127.337.54
Year 4 PV (M)6.847.117.39
Year 5 PV (M)6.576.897.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)107.91113.28118.85
Equity Value (M)143.55149.94156.57
Shares Outstanding (M)23.1623.1623.16
Fair Value$6.20$6.47$6.76
Upside / Downside93.66%102.29%111.23%

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