Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

WiseTech Global Limited (WTC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.13 - $79.71$51.06
Multi-Stage$25.14 - $27.46$26.28
Blended Fair Value$38.67
Current Price$109.03
Upside-64.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS42.01%41.29%0.190.160.120.080.040.030.030.020.010.01
YoY Growth--21.44%26.92%56.98%100.76%18.92%23.86%48.48%105.52%-22.97%88.58%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.17%0.16%0.21%0.12%0.17%0.09%0.12%0.13%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)577.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)459.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.6072.2543.35
Cash Retained (M)459.13459.13459.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.60-72.25-43.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)343.53386.88415.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)333.80333.80333.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.161.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.161.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.13$51.06$79.71
Upside / Downside-67.78%-53.17%-26.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)577.99615.56655.57698.18743.56791.90815.65
Payout Ratio20.57%34.45%48.34%62.23%76.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.86212.07316.90434.45565.95712.71754.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.58193.39195.21
Year 2 PV (M)258.60263.52268.50
Year 3 PV (M)320.26329.46338.82
Year 4 PV (M)376.87391.37406.27
Year 5 PV (M)428.73449.44470.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,814.697,143.857,485.60
Equity Value (M)8,390.738,771.029,165.33
Shares Outstanding (M)333.80333.80333.80
Fair Value$25.14$26.28$27.46
Upside / Downside-76.94%-75.90%-74.82%

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