Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Urbana Corporation (URB-A.CN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Investment - Banking & Investment ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$375.55 - $459.29$430.43
Multi-Stage$77.50 - $84.95$81.15
Blended Fair Value$255.79
Current Price$7.30
Upside3,403.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.25%5.17%0.120.110.100.100.100.080.120.130.060.07
YoY Growth--9.09%5.89%8.07%0.52%13.10%-30.00%-3.62%94.34%-7.23%-4.09%
Dividend Yield--2.07%2.34%2.85%2.42%3.15%4.50%5.27%4.08%2.07%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1211.957.17
Cash Retained (M)90.2290.2290.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.12-11.95-7.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.1078.2783.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.4041.4041.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.721.892.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.721.892.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$375.55$430.43$459.29
Upside / Downside5,044.54%5,796.25%6,191.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.60101.81108.43115.48122.99130.98134.91
Payout Ratio5.63%22.50%39.38%56.25%73.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.3822.9142.7064.9689.94117.88124.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)21.4121.6121.81
Year 2 PV (M)37.2837.9938.70
Year 3 PV (M)52.9954.5156.06
Year 4 PV (M)68.5571.1973.90
Year 5 PV (M)83.9588.0192.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,943.863,086.043,233.68
Equity Value (M)3,208.043,359.353,516.37
Shares Outstanding (M)41.4041.4041.40
Fair Value$77.50$81.15$84.95
Upside / Downside961.62%1,011.69%1,063.65%

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