Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

TI Fluid Systems plc (TIFS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $0.93$0.80
Multi-Stage$2.08 - $2.30$2.19
Blended Fair Value$1.49
Current Price$2.33
Upside-35.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.73%-19.76%0.040.020.010.040.000.050.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--75.25%57.14%-67.42%0.00%-100.00%107.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.24%0.93%1.42%0.00%1.65%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1614.488.69
Cash Retained (M)61.3061.3061.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.16-14.48-8.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1446.8352.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)900.82900.82900.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Fair Value$0.67$0.80$0.93
Upside / Downside-71.14%-65.66%-60.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.80108.01100.7493.9787.6581.7584.20
Payout Ratio47.06%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.5060.1164.7268.4371.3673.5877.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Year 1 PV (M)55.9056.5057.11
Year 2 PV (M)55.9657.1858.41
Year 3 PV (M)55.0356.8458.68
Year 4 PV (M)53.3655.7158.14
Year 5 PV (M)51.1653.9956.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,600.141,688.751,781.24
Equity Value (M)1,871.541,968.972,070.53
Shares Outstanding (M)900.82900.82900.82
Fair Value$2.08$2.19$2.30
Upside / Downside-10.83%-6.19%-1.35%

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