Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fibra Terrafina (TERRA13.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.22 - $159.37$99.17
Multi-Stage$69.65 - $76.39$72.95
Blended Fair Value$86.06
Current Price$36.49
Upside135.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.06%10.38%2.901.731.932.122.412.912.862.191.621.45
YoY Growth--67.31%-10.18%-8.83%-12.38%-16.94%1.53%30.69%35.34%11.25%34.76%
Dividend Yield--7.81%3.83%5.81%7.55%7.93%11.08%9.44%7.40%5.29%4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,533.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,175.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)506.76316.73190.04
Cash Retained (M)2,175.252,175.252,175.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-506.76-316.73-190.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,668.481,858.521,985.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)782.41782.41782.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.132.382.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.132.382.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.833.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Fair Value$67.22$99.17$159.37
Upside / Downside84.22%171.78%336.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,533.822,640.172,750.992,866.462,986.783,112.153,205.52
Payout Ratio14.15%29.32%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.57774.131,223.941,710.152,235.022,800.942,965.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Year 1 PV (M)715.37722.30729.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,045.201,065.551,086.10
Year 3 PV (M)1,349.561,389.171,429.55
Year 4 PV (M)1,629.891,693.991,759.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,887.561,980.802,077.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,863.4050,227.8052,684.73
Equity Value (M)54,490.9757,079.6259,767.28
Shares Outstanding (M)782.41782.41782.41
Fair Value$69.65$72.95$76.39
Upside / Downside90.86%99.93%109.34%

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