Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk (TCPI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$188.28 - $255.67$222.64
Multi-Stage$315.04 - $347.09$330.75
Blended Fair Value$276.69
Current Price$5,825.00
Upside-95.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.39%0.00%10.007.003.000.005.0015.500.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--42.86%133.33%0.00%-100.00%-67.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.17%0.09%0.04%0.00%0.06%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190,548.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)165,548.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38,109.6023,818.5014,291.10
Cash Retained (M)165,548.00165,548.00165,548.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-38,109.60-23,818.50-14,291.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)127,438.40141,729.50151,256.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,000.005,000.005,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.4928.3530.25
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.4928.3530.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.4933.3535.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-5.38%-4.38%-3.38%
Fair Value$188.28$222.64$255.67
Upside / Downside-96.77%-96.18%-95.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190,548.00182,195.13174,208.43166,571.82159,269.98152,288.22156,856.86
Payout Ratio13.12%28.50%43.87%59.25%74.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,000.0051,918.4076,428.7898,690.51118,853.64137,059.39145,092.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-5.38%-4.38%-3.38%
Year 1 PV (M)46,731.4447,225.3547,719.25
Year 2 PV (M)61,920.2363,236.0264,565.64
Year 3 PV (M)71,967.9174,274.0076,628.83
Year 4 PV (M)78,012.4481,363.1584,820.65
Year 5 PV (M)80,974.4585,344.9689,902.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,235,595.271,302,285.121,371,823.99
Equity Value (M)1,575,201.751,653,728.601,735,460.54
Shares Outstanding (M)5,000.005,000.005,000.00
Fair Value$315.04$330.75$347.09
Upside / Downside-94.59%-94.32%-94.04%

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