Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.59 - $125.82$99.99
Multi-Stage$528.48 - $585.20$556.26
Blended Fair Value$328.12
Current Price$252.79
Upside29.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.27%-1.01%2.742.672.652.782.963.073.253.312.563.32
YoY Growth--2.56%0.52%-4.59%-6.01%-3.57%-5.61%-1.79%29.41%-22.83%9.49%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.45%4.03%5.23%3.51%6.30%6.84%6.99%7.71%8.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)606.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,107.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)342.60214.13128.48
Cash Retained (M)1,107.001,107.001,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-342.60-214.13-128.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)764.40892.88978.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.25219.25219.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.494.074.46
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.494.074.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.256.847.23
WACC / Discount Rate3.34%3.34%3.34%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Fair Value$78.59$99.99$125.82
Upside / Downside-68.91%-60.45%-50.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,713.001,656.981,602.801,550.381,499.681,450.641,494.16
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)606.00767.20917.221,056.601,185.881,305.581,382.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.34%3.34%3.34%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)734.71742.38750.06
Year 2 PV (M)841.16858.83876.68
Year 3 PV (M)927.94957.33987.33
Year 4 PV (M)997.371,039.701,083.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,051.531,107.611,166.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,316.33117,253.16123,440.63
Equity Value (M)115,869.04121,959.01128,304.12
Shares Outstanding (M)219.25219.25219.25
Fair Value$528.48$556.26$585.20
Upside / Downside109.06%120.05%131.49%

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