Definitive Analysis
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Spinneys 1961 Hold (SPINNEYS.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.86 - $1.34$1.08
Multi-Stage$2.03 - $2.24$2.13
Blended Fair Value$1.61
Current Price$1.54
Upside4.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.050.060.050.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---48.09%-9.64%10.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.85%3.43%3.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9241.2024.72
Cash Retained (M)109.29109.29109.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.92-41.20-24.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.3668.0984.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,599.533,599.533,599.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.86$1.08$1.34
Upside / Downside-44.02%-29.70%-13.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.61326.31323.05319.82316.62313.45322.86
Payout Ratio66.84%71.47%76.11%80.74%85.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.32233.23245.86258.21270.29282.11298.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)217.14219.35221.57
Year 2 PV (M)213.10217.47221.88
Year 3 PV (M)208.36214.81221.38
Year 4 PV (M)203.06211.48220.15
Year 5 PV (M)197.31207.59218.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,278.346,605.276,945.68
Equity Value (M)7,317.317,675.968,048.94
Shares Outstanding (M)3,599.533,599.533,599.53
Fair Value$2.03$2.13$2.24
Upside / Downside32.00%38.47%45.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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