Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited (SONACOMS.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.36 - $382.47$257.85
Multi-Stage$133.10 - $145.40$139.14
Blended Fair Value$198.49
Current Price$411.75
Upside-51.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS14.34%0.00%3.042.881.930.721.451.561.660.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5.53%49.50%166.53%-50.23%-6.62%-6.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.43%0.37%0.13%0.42%0.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,128.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)897.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,230.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,225.60766.00459.60
Cash Retained (M)5,230.735,230.735,230.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,225.60-766.00-459.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,005.134,464.734,771.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)621.51621.51621.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.447.187.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.447.187.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.898.639.12
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$182.36$257.85$382.47
Upside / Downside-55.71%-37.38%-7.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,128.016,526.336,950.547,402.337,883.488,395.908,647.78
Payout Ratio14.64%29.71%44.79%59.86%74.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)897.281,939.223,112.834,430.805,906.977,556.317,999.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,745.371,761.911,778.46
Year 2 PV (M)2,521.592,569.622,618.10
Year 3 PV (M)3,230.443,323.183,417.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,876.184,025.254,178.57
Year 5 PV (M)4,462.824,678.374,902.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,885.2970,115.8873,470.10
Equity Value (M)82,721.7086,474.2190,365.09
Shares Outstanding (M)621.51621.51621.51
Fair Value$133.10$139.14$145.40
Upside / Downside-67.68%-66.21%-64.69%

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