Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Rational AG (RAA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,820.62 - $4,458.96$4,178.70
Multi-Stage$662.49 - $724.35$692.86
Blended Fair Value$2,435.78
Current Price$649.00
Upside275.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.28%8.45%13.5011.007.504.805.709.5011.0010.007.506.80
YoY Growth--22.73%46.67%56.25%-15.79%-40.00%-13.64%10.00%33.33%10.29%13.33%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.39%1.22%0.77%0.86%1.96%1.97%1.96%1.72%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.9931.8719.12
Cash Retained (M)84.3884.3884.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.99-31.87-19.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.3952.5165.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.3711.3711.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.944.625.74
LTM Dividend per Share15.0015.0015.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.944.625.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.9419.6220.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,820.62$4,178.70$4,458.96
Upside / Downside180.53%543.87%587.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.93271.50289.14307.94327.95349.27359.75
Payout Ratio66.90%71.52%76.14%80.76%85.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.55194.18220.16248.69280.01314.34332.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.55182.26183.97
Year 2 PV (M)190.33193.96197.62
Year 3 PV (M)199.91205.65211.50
Year 4 PV (M)209.29217.34225.61
Year 5 PV (M)218.46229.01239.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,533.976,849.567,177.23
Equity Value (M)7,532.517,877.788,235.90
Shares Outstanding (M)11.3711.3711.37
Fair Value$662.49$692.86$724.35
Upside / Downside2.08%6.76%11.61%

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