Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.41 - $65.66$31.79
Multi-Stage$12.48 - $13.64$13.05
Blended Fair Value$22.42
Current Price$21.14
Upside6.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.34%0.00%0.080.000.000.000.020.040.150.580.670.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-42.63%-72.84%-74.23%-13.44%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.22%1.00%1.11%6.06%6.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.799.245.55
Cash Retained (M)57.3857.3857.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.79-9.24-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.5948.1451.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.75104.75104.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.41$31.79$65.66
Upside / Downside-8.17%50.39%210.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.9478.7583.8789.3295.13101.31104.35
Payout Ratio22.40%35.92%49.44%62.96%76.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.5628.2941.4656.2472.7591.1896.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.8126.0526.30
Year 2 PV (M)34.5235.1835.84
Year 3 PV (M)42.7243.9445.19
Year 4 PV (M)50.4252.3654.36
Year 5 PV (M)57.6660.4563.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,096.051,148.991,203.96
Equity Value (M)1,307.181,366.971,428.98
Shares Outstanding (M)104.75104.75104.75
Fair Value$12.48$13.05$13.64
Upside / Downside-40.97%-38.27%-35.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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