Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Oriental Carbon & Chemicals Limited (ORIENTCQ.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$265.46 - $381.83$322.27
Multi-Stage$417.22 - $458.90$437.65
Blended Fair Value$379.96
Current Price$761.65
Upside-50.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS4.60%0.00%14.1914.0017.0010.0012.0011.330.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.32%-17.65%70.00%-16.67%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%1.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)340.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.2647.0428.22
Cash Retained (M)340.40340.40340.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.26-47.04-28.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)265.14293.36312.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.999.999.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share26.5529.3731.26
LTM Dividend per Share3.593.593.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share26.5529.3731.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.1432.9734.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$265.46$322.27$381.83
Upside / Downside-65.15%-57.69%-49.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.29372.53368.80365.11361.46357.85368.58
Payout Ratio9.54%25.63%41.72%57.82%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.8995.48153.87211.09267.15322.06340.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.6187.4988.38
Year 2 PV (M)126.61129.21131.83
Year 3 PV (M)157.56162.43167.40
Year 4 PV (M)180.88188.37196.10
Year 5 PV (M)197.80208.10218.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,417.543,595.503,780.80
Equity Value (M)4,167.004,371.114,583.34
Shares Outstanding (M)9.999.999.99
Fair Value$417.22$437.65$458.90
Upside / Downside-45.22%-42.54%-39.75%

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