Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Origin Property Public Company Limited (ORI-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.52 - $2.17$1.84
Multi-Stage$6.02 - $6.67$6.34
Blended Fair Value$4.09
Current Price$1.63
Upside150.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.66%25.03%0.320.730.570.610.290.560.390.050.080.10
YoY Growth---56.03%28.07%-6.51%110.34%-48.59%43.93%666.68%-35.08%-22.97%197.11%
Dividend Yield--15.73%10.35%4.91%5.35%3.43%15.93%5.68%0.41%1.31%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)515.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.3970.8742.52
Cash Retained (M)515.43515.43515.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.39-70.87-42.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)402.04444.56472.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.242,454.242,454.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Fair Value$1.52$1.84$2.17
Upside / Downside-6.98%12.68%33.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.97537.43509.44482.90457.74433.90446.91
Payout Ratio9.09%25.27%41.45%57.64%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.54135.82211.18278.32337.90390.51413.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)127.72129.08130.44
Year 2 PV (M)186.73190.74194.78
Year 3 PV (M)231.42238.90246.54
Year 4 PV (M)264.19275.64287.46
Year 5 PV (M)287.11302.75319.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,673.8614,418.5315,195.29
Equity Value (M)14,771.0415,555.6416,373.57
Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.242,454.242,454.24
Fair Value$6.02$6.34$6.67
Upside / Downside269.24%288.85%309.30%

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