Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.19 - $241.65$148.55
Multi-Stage$28.86 - $31.58$30.20
Blended Fair Value$89.37
Current Price$19.77
Upside352.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.23%17.60%0.340.320.250.140.110.080.060.070.060.10
YoY Growth--6.08%29.09%75.74%28.92%35.29%26.42%-8.19%20.25%-44.84%56.56%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.04%1.09%0.77%0.80%1.12%0.40%1.03%0.87%3.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.704.812.89
Cash Retained (M)25.8325.8325.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.70-4.81-2.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1221.0122.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.7031.7031.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.660.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.660.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.19$148.55$241.65
Upside / Downside194.36%651.38%1,122.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.5241.0243.6946.5349.5552.7754.35
Payout Ratio32.95%44.36%55.77%67.18%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.6918.2024.3631.2638.9447.4950.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.8116.9717.12
Year 2 PV (M)20.7821.1821.58
Year 3 PV (M)24.6225.3326.05
Year 4 PV (M)28.3329.4230.54
Year 5 PV (M)31.9133.4535.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)792.54830.82870.56
Equity Value (M)914.99957.161,000.91
Shares Outstanding (M)31.7031.7031.70
Fair Value$28.86$30.20$31.58
Upside / Downside46.00%52.73%59.71%

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