Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas DrillingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.45 - $208.43$172.22
Multi-Stage$305.48 - $337.09$320.97
Blended Fair Value$246.60
Current Price$40.87
Upside503.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-47.91%0.010.020.010.610.000.000.005.654.205.72
YoY Growth---55.15%198.46%-99.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%34.52%-26.58%17.28%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.02%0.00%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.62%0.64%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2925.8015.48
Cash Retained (M)200.38200.38200.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.29-25.80-15.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)159.09174.58184.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1212.1212.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1314.4115.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1314.4115.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.6314.9015.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Fair Value$139.45$172.22$208.43
Upside / Downside241.21%321.38%409.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.43202.81199.25195.75192.31188.94194.61
Payout Ratio2.93%20.35%37.76%55.17%72.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.0541.2675.23108.00139.59170.04180.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)38.2638.6539.05
Year 2 PV (M)64.6966.0267.38
Year 3 PV (M)86.1188.7991.53
Year 4 PV (M)103.20107.51111.95
Year 5 PV (M)116.57122.68129.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,293.353,466.203,646.24
Equity Value (M)3,702.173,889.864,085.20
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1212.1212.12
Fair Value$305.48$320.97$337.09
Upside / Downside647.45%685.35%724.79%

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