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Definitive Analysis

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Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.78 - $32.04$26.01
Multi-Stage$46.53 - $51.22$48.83
Blended Fair Value$37.42
Current Price$33.72
Upside10.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.670.860.270.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.81%94.57%213.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%6.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.0018.1310.88
Cash Retained (M)81.0081.0081.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.00-18.13-10.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0062.8870.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.78$26.01$32.04
Upside / Downside-38.38%-22.86%-4.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.00143.55142.11140.69139.29137.89142.03
Payout Ratio44.14%53.31%62.48%71.66%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.0076.5388.80100.81112.58124.10131.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)71.1271.8572.57
Year 2 PV (M)76.6978.2779.86
Year 3 PV (M)80.9283.4285.98
Year 4 PV (M)83.9887.4691.05
Year 5 PV (M)86.0490.5295.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,591.182,726.112,866.61
Equity Value (M)2,989.943,137.633,291.24
Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
Fair Value$46.53$48.83$51.22
Upside / Downside37.99%44.81%51.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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