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Definitive Analysis

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Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$524.81 - $1,557.49$1,459.60
Multi-Stage$212.48 - $232.53$222.32
Blended Fair Value$840.96
Current Price$90.74
Upside826.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.43%10.87%2.422.161.671.381.271.241.121.030.960.88
YoY Growth--12.24%29.61%20.54%8.78%2.85%10.31%9.16%6.50%9.58%1.81%
Dividend Yield--3.35%2.29%2.43%2.29%4.19%7.80%3.05%3.00%2.37%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,998.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,357.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,641.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)799.64499.77299.86
Cash Retained (M)2,641.192,641.192,641.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-799.64-499.77-299.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,841.552,141.412,341.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)510.53510.53510.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.614.194.59
LTM Dividend per Share2.662.662.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.614.194.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.276.857.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$524.81$1,459.60$1,557.49
Upside / Downside478.36%1,508.55%1,616.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,998.194,258.074,534.854,829.615,143.535,477.865,642.20
Payout Ratio33.94%45.15%56.36%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,357.001,922.622,556.033,263.664,052.494,930.085,219.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,783.981,800.891,817.80
Year 2 PV (M)2,200.692,242.612,284.92
Year 3 PV (M)2,607.322,682.172,758.44
Year 4 PV (M)3,004.063,119.583,238.41
Year 5 PV (M)3,391.063,554.853,724.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,487.29100,099.36104,887.95
Equity Value (M)108,474.40113,499.46118,712.42
Shares Outstanding (M)510.53510.53510.53
Fair Value$212.48$222.32$232.53
Upside / Downside134.16%145.01%156.26%

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