Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ilex Medical Ltd (ILX.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.25 - $30.86$26.57
Multi-Stage$37.88 - $41.63$39.71
Blended Fair Value$33.14
Current Price$66.84
Upside-50.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.39%-1.89%1.361.915.355.350.002.231.611.340.890.00
YoY Growth---28.80%-64.26%0.01%0.00%-100.00%38.89%20.00%50.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.19%2.90%6.53%3.59%0.00%2.23%2.48%2.92%2.21%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.735.453.27
Cash Retained (M)29.9929.9929.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.73-5.45-3.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.2724.5426.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.2111.2111.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.902.192.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.902.192.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.113.413.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-3.89%-2.89%-1.89%
Fair Value$22.25$26.57$30.86
Upside / Downside-66.71%-60.25%-53.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.6442.3741.1539.9638.8037.6838.81
Payout Ratio31.27%43.01%54.76%66.51%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6418.2322.5326.5730.3633.9135.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-3.89%-2.89%-1.89%
Year 1 PV (M)16.4616.6416.81
Year 2 PV (M)18.3918.7719.16
Year 3 PV (M)19.5920.2120.84
Year 4 PV (M)20.2221.0821.96
Year 5 PV (M)20.4021.4922.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)329.50347.00365.24
Equity Value (M)424.57445.18466.62
Shares Outstanding (M)11.2111.2111.21
Fair Value$37.88$39.71$41.63
Upside / Downside-43.33%-40.58%-37.72%

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