Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hudaco Industries Limited (HDC.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$601.31 - $1,123.06$814.23
Multi-Stage$559.75 - $609.65$584.25
Blended Fair Value$699.24
Current Price$197.51
Upside254.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.43%8.14%11.2910.129.647.434.526.297.386.186.055.51
YoY Growth--11.61%5.03%29.72%64.22%-28.07%-14.75%19.26%2.18%9.84%6.65%
Dividend Yield--5.63%6.20%6.88%5.32%5.29%5.82%5.19%4.55%5.58%5.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,118.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)837.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)280.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)223.71139.8283.89
Cash Retained (M)280.98280.98280.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-223.71-139.82-83.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.27141.16197.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.6928.6928.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.004.926.87
LTM Dividend per Share29.2029.2029.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.004.926.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.1934.1236.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Fair Value$601.31$814.23$1,123.06
Upside / Downside204.45%312.25%468.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,118.541,179.641,244.061,312.011,383.671,459.241,503.02
Payout Ratio74.88%77.90%80.93%83.95%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)837.57918.981,006.801,101.461,203.461,313.321,390.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Year 1 PV (M)828.42836.35844.28
Year 2 PV (M)818.13833.87849.76
Year 3 PV (M)806.85830.24854.08
Year 4 PV (M)794.68825.55857.31
Year 5 PV (M)781.76819.90859.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,027.3712,614.1813,223.68
Equity Value (M)16,057.2016,760.0917,488.62
Shares Outstanding (M)28.6928.6928.69
Fair Value$559.75$584.25$609.65
Upside / Downside183.40%195.81%208.67%

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