Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$816.83 - $1,767.91$1,656.79
Multi-Stage$266.57 - $291.82$278.97
Blended Fair Value$967.88
Current Price$116.80
Upside728.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.68%-14.48%3.002.502.251.100.002.272.131.691.401.05
YoY Growth--19.92%11.30%104.27%0.00%-100.00%6.61%26.11%20.81%33.04%-92.65%
Dividend Yield--2.63%2.13%2.27%1.19%0.00%5.21%2.43%1.95%1.93%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)946.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)329.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.20118.2570.95
Cash Retained (M)617.00617.00617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.20-118.25-70.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)427.80498.75546.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.42106.42106.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.024.695.13
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.024.695.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.117.788.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$816.83$1,656.79$1,767.91
Upside / Downside599.34%1,318.48%1,413.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)946.001,007.491,072.981,142.721,217.001,296.101,334.99
Payout Ratio34.78%45.82%56.87%67.91%78.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)329.00461.66610.17776.04960.891,166.491,234.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)429.74433.81437.89
Year 2 PV (M)528.71538.78548.95
Year 3 PV (M)625.95643.92662.23
Year 4 PV (M)721.46749.21777.75
Year 5 PV (M)815.29854.66895.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,246.8826,466.3127,732.41
Equity Value (M)28,368.0329,686.7031,054.77
Shares Outstanding (M)106.42106.42106.42
Fair Value$266.57$278.97$291.82
Upside / Downside128.23%138.84%149.85%

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