Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $190.67 - $321.63 | $247.91 |
| Multi-Stage | $219.77 - $240.44 | $229.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $238.91 | |
| Current Price | $332.17 | |
| Upside | -28.08% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.83% | 6.40% | 5.60 | 5.23 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 4.54 | 4.22 | 3.94 | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.20 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.07% | 4.31% | 4.11% | 6.05% | 7.64% | 7.16% | 9.03% | 8.23% | 4.35% | 6.20% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.06% | 1.80% | 2.16% | 2.01% | 2.45% | 3.16% | 2.29% | 1.65% | 1.78% | 2.43% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,215.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,577.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,638.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 843.00 | 526.88 | 316.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,638.00 | 2,638.00 | 2,638.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -843.00 | -526.88 | -316.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,795.00 | 2,111.13 | 2,321.88 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 272.85 | 272.85 | 272.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.58 | 7.74 | 8.51 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.78 | 5.78 | 5.78 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.58 | 7.74 | 8.51 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 12.36 | 13.52 | 14.29 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.46% | 3.46% | 4.46% |
| Fair Value | $190.67 | $247.91 | $321.63 |
| Upside / Downside | -42.60% | -25.37% | -3.17% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,215.00 | 4,360.72 | 4,511.47 | 4,667.44 | 4,828.80 | 4,995.74 | 5,145.61 |
| Payout Ratio | 37.41% | 47.93% | 58.45% | 68.97% | 79.48% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,577.00 | 2,090.14 | 2,636.88 | 3,218.93 | 3,838.07 | 4,496.16 | 4,759.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.46% | 3.46% | 4.46% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,897.32 | 1,915.84 | 1,934.36 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,172.81 | 2,215.43 | 2,258.46 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,407.72 | 2,478.91 | 2,551.49 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,605.99 | 2,709.23 | 2,815.50 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,771.19 | 2,909.10 | 3,052.44 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 48,107.86 | 50,501.84 | 52,990.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 59,962.89 | 62,730.34 | 65,602.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 272.85 | 272.85 | 272.85 |
| Fair Value | $219.77 | $229.91 | $240.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.84% | -30.79% | -27.62% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | 1.61% | $0.94 | 17.19% |
| VIRC | Virco Mfg. Corporation | 1.61% | $0.10 | 41.34% |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.67 | 22.53% |
| IVT | InvenTrust Properties Corp. | 1.60% | $0.45 | 29.49% |
| KBR | KBR, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.65 | 21.84% |
| OBK | Origin Bancorp, Inc. | 1.60% | $0.60 | 31.45% |
| TNC | Tennant Company | 1.60% | $1.18 | 39.96% |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. | 1.59% | $2.03 | 27.33% |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp, Inc. | 1.59% | $0.08 | 35.84% |
| 0HPW.L | Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 1.58% | $3.49 | 44.54% |
| CCF | Chase Corporation | 1.58% | $2.01 | 57.26% |
| MSIF | MSC Income Fund, Inc. | 1.58% | $0.21 | 12.72% |
| PRI | Primerica, Inc. | 1.58% | $4.10 | 18.44% |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.57% | $2.82 | 44.28% |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | 1.57% | $4.79 | 51.11% |
| MRO | Marathon Oil Corporation | 1.57% | $0.45 | 19.02% |
| NEU | NewMarket Corporation | 1.57% | $10.82 | 22.69% |
| PSMT | PriceSmart, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.93 | 39.29% |
| TFSL | TFS Financial Corporation | 1.57% | $0.21 | 65.45% |
| UFPI | UFP Industries, Inc. | 1.57% | $1.44 | 25.79% |
| 0M3Q.L | Zoetis Inc. | 1.56% | $1.95 | 32.55% |
| 0K92.L | Northrop Grumman Corporation | 1.55% | $8.80 | 31.43% |
| 0QZ5.L | Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 1.55% | $1.25 | 28.62% |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | 1.55% | $2.11 | 51.98% |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 1.55% | $1.32 | 13.96% |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | 1.55% | $2.65 | 40.30% |
| 0HQW.L | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 1.54% | $2.48 | 50.26% |
| 0J76.L | Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | 1.54% | $5.36 | 37.08% |
| BHE | Benchmark Electronics, Inc. | 1.54% | $0.68 | 65.62% |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza, Inc. | 1.54% | $6.54 | 37.90% |
| GRC | The Gorman-Rupp Company | 1.54% | $0.74 | 38.69% |
| DFS | Discover Financial Services | 1.53% | $3.06 | 16.08% |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial, Inc. | 1.53% | $0.59 | 16.67% |
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. | 1.52% | $0.30 | 29.07% |
| 0J3H.L | The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | 1.51% | $2.06 | 16.53% |
| TRV | The Travelers Companies, Inc. | 1.51% | $4.29 | 16.63% |
| CISMX | Clarkston Partners Fund Institutional Class | 1.50% | $0.19 | 32.74% |
| FCAP | First Capital, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.88 | 28.53% |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.26 | 22.66% |
| OBT | Orange County Bancorp, Inc. | 1.50% | $0.43 | 15.62% |
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation | 1.50% | $1.99 | 19.24% |
| SAIC | Science Applications International Corporation | 1.50% | $1.51 | 19.14% |
| FUL | H.B. Fuller Company | 1.49% | $0.90 | 43.28% |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 1.48% | $0.41 | 14.04% |
| FRBA | First Bank | 1.48% | $0.24 | 14.40% |
| ANDE | The Andersons, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.78 | 36.39% |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp, Inc. | 1.47% | $0.40 | 25.40% |
| WM | Waste Management, Inc. | 1.47% | $3.22 | 50.78% |
| ATR | AptarGroup, Inc. | 1.45% | $1.78 | 28.44% |
| CHX | ChampionX Corporation | 1.45% | $0.37 | 24.70% |