Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Energisa S.A. (ENGI11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.63 - $287.09$269.05
Multi-Stage$43.49 - $47.54$45.48
Blended Fair Value$157.26
Current Price$50.86
Upside209.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.54%22.15%0.700.550.690.390.130.200.130.090.050.12
YoY Growth--27.03%-20.56%77.02%194.87%-33.38%57.81%41.72%64.43%-54.50%25.93%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.16%1.72%0.80%0.29%0.53%0.31%0.26%0.24%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,300.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,515.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)785.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)660.10412.56247.54
Cash Retained (M)785.35785.35785.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-660.10-412.56-247.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.25372.79537.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,286.342,286.342,286.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.160.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.160.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.63$269.05$287.09
Upside / Downside141.11%428.99%464.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,300.493,515.023,743.503,986.824,245.974,521.964,657.61
Payout Ratio76.21%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,515.142,775.603,059.303,368.153,704.234,069.764,308.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,581.882,606.362,630.83
Year 2 PV (M)2,647.172,697.592,748.48
Year 3 PV (M)2,711.002,788.832,868.13
Year 4 PV (M)2,773.422,880.082,989.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,834.442,971.343,113.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,888.9990,037.4694,344.70
Equity Value (M)99,436.90103,981.65108,695.41
Shares Outstanding (M)2,286.342,286.342,286.34
Fair Value$43.49$45.48$47.54
Upside / Downside-14.49%-10.58%-6.53%

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