Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand- North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.84 - $3.94$3.39
Multi-Stage$7.02 - $7.76$7.38
Blended Fair Value$5.39
Current Price$5.85
Upside-7.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.98%0.00%0.370.350.230.620.840.790.780.720.520.11
YoY Growth--4.67%54.16%-62.93%-25.99%6.35%0.38%8.82%39.81%368.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.28%6.00%3.45%5.58%6.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,056.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)236.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)820.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.36132.1079.26
Cash Retained (M)820.51820.51820.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.36-132.10-79.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)609.15688.41741.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,085.502,085.502,085.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.27%-5.27%-4.27%
Fair Value$2.84$3.39$3.94
Upside / Downside-51.52%-42.09%-32.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,056.791,001.09948.33898.34850.99806.14830.32
Payout Ratio22.36%35.89%49.42%62.94%76.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)236.28359.26468.62565.45650.77725.52768.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.27%-5.27%-4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)331.82335.36338.90
Year 2 PV (M)399.76408.34417.00
Year 3 PV (M)445.52459.93474.65
Year 4 PV (M)473.57494.11515.31
Year 5 PV (M)487.65514.22541.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,507.6013,189.2113,900.22
Equity Value (M)14,645.9115,401.1616,188.02
Shares Outstanding (M)2,085.502,085.502,085.50
Fair Value$7.02$7.38$7.76
Upside / Downside20.05%26.24%32.69%

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