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Definitive Analysis

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PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,745.91 - $4,588.72$3,556.69
Multi-Stage$5,540.15 - $6,091.99$5,810.72
Blended Fair Value$4,683.70
Current Price$4,700.00
Upside-0.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.96%-4.18%30.00100.00108.00112.0081.00118.0056.0056.0029.0018.00
YoY Growth---70.00%-7.41%-3.57%38.27%-31.36%110.71%0.00%93.10%61.11%-60.87%
Dividend Yield--0.68%1.92%2.16%1.98%1.16%2.39%0.88%1.62%0.91%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,845,236.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,770,984.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,074,252.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)769,047.20480,654.50288,392.70
Cash Retained (M)2,074,252.002,074,252.002,074,252.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-769,047.20-480,654.50-288,392.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,305,204.801,593,597.501,785,859.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,398.0016,398.0016,398.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.6097.18108.91
LTM Dividend per Share108.00108.00108.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.6097.18108.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend187.60205.18216.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$2,745.91$3,556.69$4,588.72
Upside / Downside-41.58%-24.33%-2.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,845,236.003,864,871.363,884,606.993,904,443.403,924,381.093,944,420.604,062,753.22
Payout Ratio46.06%54.85%63.63%72.42%81.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,770,984.002,119,698.752,471,928.672,827,700.593,187,041.493,549,978.543,758,046.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)1,974,065.381,993,903.112,013,740.84
Year 2 PV (M)2,143,930.552,187,236.532,230,975.52
Year 3 PV (M)2,283,997.312,353,548.462,424,497.43
Year 4 PV (M)2,397,382.172,495,211.412,596,004.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,486,924.902,614,419.442,747,090.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,561,036.5183,639,807.9487,884,171.80
Equity Value (M)90,847,336.8095,284,126.8999,896,480.26
Shares Outstanding (M)16,398.0016,398.0016,398.00
Fair Value$5,540.15$5,810.72$6,091.99
Upside / Downside17.88%23.63%29.62%

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