Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,335.93 - $3,629.60$2,934.08
Multi-Stage$5,498.71 - $6,050.26$5,769.07
Blended Fair Value$4,351.57
Current Price$4,600.00
Upside-5.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%90.0070.0063.0250.410.000.006.300.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.58%11.08%25.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%1.36%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)774,251.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392,911.60245,569.75147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)774,251.00774,251.00774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-392,911.60-245,569.75-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)381,339.40528,681.25626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
LTM Dividend per Share150.01150.01150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend198.07216.64229.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,335.93$2,934.08$3,629.60
Upside / Downside-49.22%-36.22%-21.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964,558.001,944,912.421,925,463.301,906,208.661,887,146.581,868,275.111,924,323.36
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190,307.001,292,807.381,393,138.721,491,334.151,587,426.371,681,447.601,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,203,791.521,216,075.111,228,358.69
Year 2 PV (M)1,207,895.261,232,671.961,257,700.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,204,002.351,241,236.941,279,231.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,193,337.861,242,796.141,293,776.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,176,984.181,238,272.471,302,087.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,644,486.6639,604,722.4341,645,780.03
Equity Value (M)43,630,497.8345,775,775.0448,006,934.11
Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
Fair Value$5,498.71$5,769.07$6,050.26
Upside / Downside19.54%25.41%31.53%

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