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Definitive Analysis

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Charter Hall Group (CHC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.92 - $242.79$227.52
Multi-Stage$36.26 - $39.66$37.93
Blended Fair Value$132.73
Current Price$19.19
Upside591.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.32%10.31%0.460.430.410.380.360.340.320.300.240.22
YoY Growth--5.99%5.99%7.66%5.95%6.00%3.99%6.37%26.43%11.50%25.96%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.83%3.80%3.49%2.30%3.47%2.95%4.67%4.38%4.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)586.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)315.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.3473.3444.00
Cash Retained (M)270.90270.90270.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.34-73.34-44.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.56197.56226.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)480.17480.17480.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$95.92$227.52$242.79
Upside / Downside399.82%1,085.64%1,165.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)586.70624.29664.28706.84752.13800.32824.33
Payout Ratio53.83%61.06%68.30%75.53%82.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)315.80381.20453.68533.88622.50720.29762.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)354.63358.00361.36
Year 2 PV (M)392.65400.13407.69
Year 3 PV (M)429.86442.21454.80
Year 4 PV (M)466.28484.23502.69
Year 5 PV (M)501.93526.19551.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,263.6816,001.5916,767.76
Equity Value (M)17,409.0318,212.3519,045.68
Shares Outstanding (M)480.17480.17480.17
Fair Value$36.26$37.93$39.66
Upside / Downside88.93%97.65%106.69%

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