Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.70 - $16.82$14.20
Multi-Stage$12.97 - $14.19$13.57
Blended Fair Value$13.88
Current Price$10.40
Upside33.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%3.28%0.210.210.230.210.200.000.000.000.110.15
YoY Growth---3.11%-5.79%5.82%7.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-29.01%2.62%
Dividend Yield--3.24%3.59%3.49%2.17%2.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.87%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)338.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.7442.3425.40
Cash Retained (M)297.11297.11297.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.74-42.34-25.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.37254.77271.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.16211.16211.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate12.39%12.39%12.39%
Growth Rate1.28%2.28%3.28%
Fair Value$11.70$14.20$16.82
Upside / Downside12.47%36.52%61.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)338.72346.45354.36362.45370.73379.19390.57
Payout Ratio12.28%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.6096.40153.68213.53276.03341.27361.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.39%12.39%12.39%
Growth Rate1.28%2.28%3.28%
Year 1 PV (M)84.9385.7786.61
Year 2 PV (M)119.29121.66124.05
Year 3 PV (M)146.02150.39154.85
Year 4 PV (M)166.31172.97179.84
Year 5 PV (M)181.15190.27199.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,041.322,144.102,250.98
Equity Value (M)2,739.022,865.172,996.08
Shares Outstanding (M)211.16211.16211.16
Fair Value$12.97$13.57$14.19
Upside / Downside24.72%30.47%36.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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