Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Companhia Distribuidora de Gás do Rio de Janeiro - CEG (CEGR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.51 - $73.49$54.24
Multi-Stage$80.74 - $88.76$84.68
Blended Fair Value$69.46
Current Price$96.72
Upside-28.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.99%1.26%1.501.040.632.370.922.160.850.760.300.61
YoY Growth--43.84%65.93%-73.44%158.40%-57.50%154.63%11.05%158.32%-51.86%-53.70%
Dividend Yield--2.68%1.53%0.71%2.96%1.65%3.59%1.76%2.54%1.14%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)732.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.4391.5254.91
Cash Retained (M)351.62351.62351.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.43-91.52-54.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)205.19260.10296.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.53253.53253.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.811.031.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.811.031.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.312.532.67
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$40.51$54.24$73.49
Upside / Downside-58.12%-43.92%-24.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)732.14740.88749.73758.69767.75776.92800.23
Payout Ratio51.97%59.58%67.18%74.79%82.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.52441.41503.70567.42632.59699.23740.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)412.66416.78420.90
Year 2 PV (M)440.23449.06457.98
Year 3 PV (M)463.63477.65491.95
Year 4 PV (M)483.21502.79522.97
Year 5 PV (M)499.34524.76551.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,171.9919,097.1120,059.53
Equity Value (M)20,471.0621,468.1522,504.53
Shares Outstanding (M)253.53253.53253.53
Fair Value$80.74$84.68$88.76
Upside / Downside-16.52%-12.45%-8.23%

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