Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CCL Industries Inc. (CCL-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$216.01 - $912.54$539.31
Multi-Stage$107.66 - $117.79$112.63
Blended Fair Value$325.97
Current Price$79.41
Upside310.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.25%18.46%1.171.060.960.850.730.690.520.460.400.30
YoY Growth--9.67%10.51%12.78%17.33%6.28%31.34%13.55%15.71%34.19%37.83%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.53%1.43%1.51%1.05%1.60%0.95%0.71%0.68%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)811.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)591.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.22101.3960.83
Cash Retained (M)591.90591.90591.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.22-101.39-60.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)429.68490.51531.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.77176.77176.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.432.773.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.432.773.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$216.01$539.31$912.54
Upside / Downside172.02%579.15%1,049.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)811.10863.82919.97979.771,043.451,111.281,144.62
Payout Ratio27.03%39.62%52.22%64.81%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.20342.25480.36634.99807.681,000.151,058.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)315.99318.98321.98
Year 2 PV (M)409.48417.28425.15
Year 3 PV (M)499.76514.11528.72
Year 4 PV (M)586.91609.48632.69
Year 5 PV (M)671.00703.41737.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,546.8917,346.1118,175.91
Equity Value (M)19,030.0319,909.3720,821.53
Shares Outstanding (M)176.77176.77176.77
Fair Value$107.66$112.63$117.79
Upside / Downside35.57%41.83%48.33%

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