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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (BDMS-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.90 - $204.02$89.68
Multi-Stage$27.34 - $29.89$28.59
Blended Fair Value$59.14
Current Price$20.80
Upside184.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.88%13.63%0.700.650.500.800.300.440.350.310.350.22
YoY Growth--7.50%30.21%-37.64%168.67%-31.69%24.07%12.91%-11.13%56.49%14.99%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.28%1.69%3.21%1.38%2.31%1.41%1.33%1.65%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,414.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,920.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,494.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,283.002,051.871,231.12
Cash Retained (M)4,494.194,494.194,494.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,283.00-2,051.87-1,231.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.192,442.323,263.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,892.0015,892.0015,892.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Fair Value$41.90$89.68$204.02
Upside / Downside101.46%331.16%880.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,414.9917,361.3118,362.1719,420.7420,540.3321,724.4622,376.20
Payout Ratio72.62%76.10%79.57%83.05%86.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,920.8013,211.4614,611.3016,128.6417,772.3719,552.0220,697.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate4.76%5.76%6.76%
Year 1 PV (M)12,249.7812,366.7112,483.64
Year 2 PV (M)12,561.5812,802.5313,045.77
Year 3 PV (M)12,856.7413,228.4313,607.21
Year 4 PV (M)13,135.7913,644.5514,167.95
Year 5 PV (M)13,399.2414,051.0514,727.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)370,276.08388,288.43406,995.05
Equity Value (M)434,479.22454,381.71475,027.60
Shares Outstanding (M)15,892.0015,892.0015,892.00
Fair Value$27.34$28.59$29.89
Upside / Downside31.44%37.46%43.71%

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