Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Buana Finance Tbk (BBLD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$302.40 - $477.35$382.41
Multi-Stage$628.66 - $691.69$659.56
Blended Fair Value$520.98
Current Price$745.00
Upside-30.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.39%-10.40%19.9815.996.004.000.0013.9915.9915.9917.9959.96
YoY Growth--25.00%166.67%50.00%0.00%-100.00%-12.50%0.00%-11.11%-70.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.33%2.91%1.18%0.99%0.00%3.19%3.52%3.14%2.10%4.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,898.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,979.606,237.253,742.35
Cash Retained (M)30,143.0030,143.0030,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,979.60-6,237.25-3,742.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,163.4023,905.7526,400.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.801,645.801,645.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.2514.5316.04
LTM Dividend per Share12.0012.0012.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.2514.5316.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.2526.5328.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Fair Value$302.40$382.41$477.35
Upside / Downside-59.41%-48.67%-35.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,898.0049,739.2049,580.9149,423.1249,265.8349,109.0450,582.32
Payout Ratio39.59%49.67%59.75%69.84%79.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,755.0024,706.7629,626.8034,515.2839,372.3444,198.1446,788.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.32%-0.32%0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)22,945.2423,177.7623,410.28
Year 2 PV (M)25,552.8026,073.3126,599.06
Year 3 PV (M)27,646.6128,495.6429,361.87
Year 4 PV (M)29,288.6030,493.9631,736.15
Year 5 PV (M)30,534.3232,113.1033,756.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)898,675.68945,141.96993,510.71
Equity Value (M)1,034,643.251,085,495.731,138,374.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.801,645.801,645.80
Fair Value$628.66$659.56$691.69
Upside / Downside-15.62%-11.47%-7.16%

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