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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,422.05 - $91,921.66$80,582.40
Multi-Stage$11,921.55 - $13,027.73$12,464.56
Blended Fair Value$46,523.48
Current Price$8,675.00
Upside436.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.34%27.21%277.51212.51155.01111.40110.6071.0052.0042.0035.0030.60
YoY Growth--30.59%37.10%39.14%0.72%55.77%36.54%23.81%20.00%14.38%22.40%
Dividend Yield--3.26%2.16%1.77%1.40%1.78%1.29%0.95%0.90%1.06%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56,976,535.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,982,515.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,994,020.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,395,307.007,122,066.884,273,240.13
Cash Retained (M)19,994,020.0019,994,020.0019,994,020.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,395,307.00-7,122,066.88-4,273,240.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,598,713.0012,871,953.1315,720,779.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123,270.28123,270.28123,270.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share69.75104.42127.53
LTM Dividend per Share300.01300.01300.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share69.75104.42127.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend369.77404.43427.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25,422.05$80,582.40$91,921.66
Upside / Downside193.05%828.90%959.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56,976,535.0060,680,009.7864,624,210.4168,824,784.0973,298,395.0578,062,790.7380,404,674.45
Payout Ratio64.91%69.93%74.94%79.96%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,982,515.0042,431,504.5448,432,611.5955,034,589.4662,290,196.6670,256,511.6674,374,323.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39,270,593.1939,642,826.3040,015,059.41
Year 2 PV (M)41,485,463.6342,275,645.1943,073,281.29
Year 3 PV (M)43,628,755.1544,881,179.9246,157,346.63
Year 4 PV (M)45,702,064.8847,459,637.3249,267,422.37
Year 5 PV (M)47,706,958.9150,011,222.8652,403,676.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251,778,469.631,312,239,837.781,375,015,204.80
Equity Value (M)1,469,572,305.391,536,510,349.371,605,931,990.93
Shares Outstanding (M)123,270.28123,270.28123,270.28
Fair Value$11,921.55$12,464.56$13,027.73
Upside / Downside37.42%43.68%50.18%

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