Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Atlas Copco AB (ATCO-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$459.79 - $1,125.74$1,054.98
Multi-Stage$165.53 - $181.08$173.16
Blended Fair Value$614.07
Current Price$158.90
Upside286.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.26%7.40%2.802.301.901.821.741.571.741.691.571.50
YoY Growth--21.82%21.11%4.06%4.50%11.15%-9.83%2.85%7.66%4.93%9.34%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.28%1.44%1.59%1.41%2.02%2.88%2.06%2.18%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,595.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,127.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,468.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,519.003,449.382,069.63
Cash Retained (M)13,468.0013,468.0013,468.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,519.00-3,449.38-2,069.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,949.0010,018.6311,398.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,874.984,874.984,874.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.632.062.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.902.902.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.632.062.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.534.955.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$459.79$1,054.98$1,125.74
Upside / Downside189.36%563.93%608.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,595.0029,388.6831,298.9433,333.3735,500.0437,807.5438,941.77
Payout Ratio51.19%58.96%66.72%74.48%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,127.0017,326.1720,881.5424,825.9029,194.8134,026.7936,021.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16,110.0316,262.7316,415.44
Year 2 PV (M)18,053.0418,396.9018,744.00
Year 3 PV (M)19,956.6220,529.5021,113.24
Year 4 PV (M)21,821.3422,660.5323,523.69
Year 5 PV (M)23,647.8024,790.0025,975.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)707,356.17741,521.74776,994.91
Equity Value (M)806,945.00844,161.40882,767.19
Shares Outstanding (M)4,874.984,874.984,874.98
Fair Value$165.53$173.16$181.08
Upside / Downside4.17%8.98%13.96%

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