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Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.79 - $172.78$161.92
Multi-Stage$25.54 - $27.95$26.72
Blended Fair Value$94.32
Current Price$9.60
Upside882.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%16.68%1.101.150.000.000.040.000.000.000.230.32
YoY Growth---4.40%0.00%-100.00%-99.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-28.14%34.72%
Dividend Yield--11.25%6.87%0.00%0.00%0.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.83%3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.114.452.67
Cash Retained (M)19.5219.5219.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.11-4.45-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.4115.0716.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.79$161.92$172.78
Upside / Downside658.23%1,586.64%1,699.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.5737.8940.3542.9745.7648.7450.20
Payout Ratio45.12%54.10%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0520.5025.4530.9637.0843.8646.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.0619.2419.42
Year 2 PV (M)22.0122.4322.86
Year 3 PV (M)24.9125.6226.35
Year 4 PV (M)27.7528.8129.91
Year 5 PV (M)30.5332.0033.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)921.48965.991,012.20
Equity Value (M)1,045.741,094.111,144.28
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
Fair Value$25.54$26.72$27.95
Upside / Downside166.04%178.34%191.10%

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