Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Alpargatas S.A. (ALPA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.27 - $13.40$9.79
Multi-Stage$38.88 - $43.02$40.91
Blended Fair Value$25.35
Current Price$9.42
Upside169.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.94%-58.41%0.000.000.120.210.040.000.290.210.180.59
YoY Growth---21.74%-99.97%-39.91%391.91%83,808.33%-99.98%38.22%13.31%-68.98%265.33%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%1.55%0.81%0.12%0.00%1.93%1.60%2.02%10.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)373.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.7546.7228.03
Cash Retained (M)312.60312.60312.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.75-46.72-28.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)237.85265.88284.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)716.90716.90716.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate2.31%2.31%2.31%
Growth Rate-3.24%-2.24%-1.24%
Fair Value$7.27$9.79$13.40
Upside / Downside-22.86%3.97%42.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)373.76365.39357.20349.20341.38333.73343.74
Payout Ratio16.36%31.09%45.82%60.55%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.16113.60163.66211.42256.96300.36317.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.31%2.31%2.31%
Growth Rate-3.24%-2.24%-1.24%
Year 1 PV (M)109.90111.03112.17
Year 2 PV (M)153.16156.34159.56
Year 3 PV (M)191.41197.40203.52
Year 4 PV (M)225.05234.50244.24
Year 5 PV (M)254.48267.90281.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,939.0728,360.2029,840.68
Equity Value (M)27,873.0729,327.3830,842.06
Shares Outstanding (M)716.90716.90716.90
Fair Value$38.88$40.91$43.02
Upside / Downside312.74%334.28%356.70%

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