Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk (ALII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.05 - $187.45$159.36
Multi-Stage$200.00 - $219.59$209.61
Blended Fair Value$184.48
Current Price$620.00
Upside-70.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315,713.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71,216.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)244,497.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63,142.6839,464.1723,678.50
Cash Retained (M)244,497.28244,497.28244,497.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-63,142.68-39,464.17-23,678.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)181,354.61205,033.11220,818.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
LTM Dividend per Share4.504.504.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.4612.9613.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.9617.4618.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$132.05$159.36$187.45
Upside / Downside-78.70%-74.30%-69.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315,713.38312,556.25309,430.69306,336.38303,273.02300,240.29309,247.50
Payout Ratio22.56%36.05%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71,216.10112,663.28153,274.39193,062.01232,038.55270,216.26286,053.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)101,530.31102,566.33103,602.35
Year 2 PV (M)124,479.04127,032.39129,611.66
Year 3 PV (M)141,298.25145,668.00150,126.92
Year 4 PV (M)153,042.99159,385.91165,923.98
Year 5 PV (M)160,612.04168,975.48177,683.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,484,191.212,613,548.812,748,239.91
Equity Value (M)3,165,153.853,317,176.933,475,188.58
Shares Outstanding (M)15,825.8015,825.8015,825.80
Fair Value$200.00$209.61$219.59
Upside / Downside-67.74%-66.19%-64.58%

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