Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.94 - $232.69$185.35
Multi-Stage$269.87 - $296.84$283.09
Blended Fair Value$234.22
Current Price$230.50
Upside1.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.009.368.990.000.001.872.814.682.25
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%4.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.33%-40.00%108.33%20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%8.51%4.04%0.00%0.00%1.03%1.82%3.12%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)75.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.099.435.66
Cash Retained (M)55.4555.4555.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.09-9.43-5.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3646.0249.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.345.345.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.568.629.32
LTM Dividend per Share3.743.743.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.568.629.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3012.3613.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Fair Value$145.94$185.35$232.69
Upside / Downside-36.68%-19.59%0.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)75.4575.6575.8676.0676.2776.4778.77
Payout Ratio26.51%39.21%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0029.6639.3749.1458.9668.8372.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-0.73%0.27%1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)27.4627.7328.01
Year 2 PV (M)33.7434.4235.11
Year 3 PV (M)38.9740.1641.37
Year 4 PV (M)43.2845.0546.88
Year 5 PV (M)46.7749.1751.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251.281,315.591,382.51
Equity Value (M)1,441.491,512.121,585.55
Shares Outstanding (M)5.345.345.34
Fair Value$269.87$283.09$296.84
Upside / Downside17.08%22.82%28.78%

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