Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ackerstein Group Ltd (ACKR.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.16$2.68
Multi-Stage$3.63 - $3.98$3.80
Blended Fair Value$3.24
Current Price$8.75
Upside-62.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.170.140.090.520.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.00%60.00%-83.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.72%2.09%12.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5011.566.94
Cash Retained (M)42.4842.4842.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.50-11.56-6.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9830.9235.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)287.95287.95287.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.21$2.68$3.16
Upside / Downside-74.73%-69.39%-63.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.4891.5590.6489.7388.8387.9590.58
Payout Ratio54.07%61.25%68.44%75.63%82.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.0056.0862.0367.8673.5779.1583.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.7551.2751.79
Year 2 PV (M)50.8051.8452.90
Year 3 PV (M)50.2951.8553.43
Year 4 PV (M)49.3451.3853.49
Year 5 PV (M)48.0450.5453.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)796.24837.70880.88
Equity Value (M)1,045.461,094.581,145.63
Shares Outstanding (M)287.95287.95287.95
Fair Value$3.63$3.80$3.98
Upside / Downside-58.51%-56.56%-54.53%

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