Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Avenue for Real Estate De (9610.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $9.75$7.86
Multi-Stage$14.54 - $16.03$15.27
Blended Fair Value$11.57
Current Price$9.50
Upside21.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.060.000.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--99.99%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.1015.069.04
Cash Retained (M)100.16100.16100.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.10-15.06-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.0685.1091.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.57184.57184.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.25$7.86$9.75
Upside / Downside-34.25%-17.25%2.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.51119.31118.11116.93115.76114.61118.04
Payout Ratio16.89%31.51%46.13%60.75%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3537.5954.4971.0487.26103.15109.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.0435.4035.76
Year 2 PV (M)47.3448.3249.30
Year 3 PV (M)57.5459.3261.14
Year 4 PV (M)65.8868.6171.43
Year 5 PV (M)72.5976.3780.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,405.142,530.382,660.78
Equity Value (M)2,683.542,818.402,958.71
Shares Outstanding (M)184.57184.57184.57
Fair Value$14.54$15.27$16.03
Upside / Downside53.05%60.74%68.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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