Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Naba Alsaha Medical Services Company (9546.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.18 - $78.03$63.76
Multi-Stage$105.20 - $115.96$110.47
Blended Fair Value$87.11
Current Price$67.00
Upside30.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.200.200.000.170.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.33%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.127.584.55
Cash Retained (M)55.3655.3655.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.12-7.58-4.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2447.7850.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.5010.5010.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.124.554.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.124.554.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.625.055.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$51.18$63.76$78.03
Upside / Downside-23.61%-4.84%16.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.6160.0059.4058.8158.2257.6459.37
Payout Ratio8.66%24.93%41.20%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.2514.9624.4733.7942.9351.8754.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.8614.0014.14
Year 2 PV (M)21.0121.4421.87
Year 3 PV (M)26.8827.7128.56
Year 4 PV (M)31.6332.9434.29
Year 5 PV (M)35.4137.2639.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)975.771,026.581,079.49
Equity Value (M)1,104.561,159.931,217.53
Shares Outstanding (M)10.5010.5010.50
Fair Value$105.20$110.47$115.96
Upside / Downside57.01%64.88%73.07%

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