Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kadokawa Corporation (9468.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,034.70 - $2,488.20$1,533.53
Multi-Stage$766.22 - $834.94$799.97
Blended Fair Value$1,166.75
Current Price$4,003.00
Upside-70.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS25.67%17.42%28.7530.0829.9823.2613.359.179.539.849.755.00
YoY Growth---4.42%0.33%28.88%74.21%45.57%-3.78%-3.09%0.94%94.91%-13.36%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.12%0.87%0.80%0.59%0.83%1.29%1.61%1.34%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,796.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,368.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,359.20849.50509.70
Cash Retained (M)2,368.002,368.002,368.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,359.20-849.50-509.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,008.801,518.501,858.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.1410.7413.14
LTM Dividend per Share31.3231.3231.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.1410.7413.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.4642.0644.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,034.70$1,533.53$2,488.20
Upside / Downside-74.15%-61.69%-37.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,796.007,237.747,708.198,209.238,742.839,311.119,590.44
Payout Ratio65.16%70.12%75.09%80.06%85.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,428.005,075.455,788.366,572.507,434.138,380.008,871.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,594.904,638.464,682.01
Year 2 PV (M)4,744.164,834.524,925.74
Year 3 PV (M)4,876.825,016.815,159.46
Year 4 PV (M)4,993.885,185.935,383.46
Year 5 PV (M)5,096.285,342.445,598.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,020.0788,078.2792,291.79
Equity Value (M)108,326.11113,096.43118,040.48
Shares Outstanding (M)141.38141.38141.38
Fair Value$766.22$799.97$834.94
Upside / Downside-80.86%-80.02%-79.14%

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