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Definitive Analysis

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MITSUI-SOKO HOLDINGS Co., Ltd. (9302.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,028.87 - $1,492.97$1,253.92
Multi-Stage$953.32 - $1,035.38$993.63
Blended Fair Value$1,123.77
Current Price$4,135.00
Upside-72.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS43.62%12.99%50.6361.2055.1321.5716.598.290.000.0016.5916.59
YoY Growth---17.27%11.01%155.58%30.06%100.16%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%11.10%
Dividend Yield--1.29%3.85%4.73%2.25%1.97%1.67%0.00%0.00%3.24%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,782.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,641.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,141.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,956.401,222.75733.65
Cash Retained (M)6,141.006,141.006,141.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,956.40-1,222.75-733.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,184.604,918.255,407.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.8274.8274.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.9365.7472.27
LTM Dividend per Share48.6648.6648.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.9365.7472.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend104.59114.40120.94
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Fair Value$1,028.87$1,253.92$1,492.97
Upside / Downside-75.12%-69.68%-63.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,782.0010,336.9610,923.3911,543.1012,197.9712,889.9913,276.69
Payout Ratio37.22%47.78%58.33%68.89%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,641.004,938.706,371.937,951.889,690.5911,600.9912,280.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4,242.294,282.824,323.35
Year 2 PV (M)4,701.614,791.884,883.00
Year 3 PV (M)5,040.045,185.875,334.49
Year 4 PV (M)5,275.975,480.495,690.91
Year 5 PV (M)5,425.445,689.605,963.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,640.8748,911.7751,270.28
Equity Value (M)71,326.2274,342.4477,465.98
Shares Outstanding (M)74.8274.8274.82
Fair Value$953.32$993.63$1,035.38
Upside / Downside-76.95%-75.97%-74.96%

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