Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (9104.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30,825.50 - $167,389.27$60,125.07
Multi-Stage$17,190.52 - $18,818.49$17,989.57
Blended Fair Value$39,057.32
Current Price$4,494.00
Upside769.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS74.10%30.79%299.87381.46616.66148.3817.0318.7510.273.4612.1525.47
YoY Growth---21.39%-38.14%315.60%771.10%-9.15%82.55%196.46%-71.49%-52.30%24.38%
Dividend Yield--6.22%7.69%17.84%4.78%0.96%2.95%1.14%0.39%1.10%3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294,946.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,912.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)275,034.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58,989.2036,868.2522,120.95
Cash Retained (M)275,034.00275,034.00275,034.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-58,989.20-36,868.25-22,120.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)216,044.80238,165.75252,913.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)350.43350.43350.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share616.52679.65721.73
LTM Dividend per Share56.8256.8256.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share616.52679.65721.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend673.34736.47778.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30,825.50$60,125.07$167,389.27
Upside / Downside585.93%1,237.90%3,624.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294,946.00314,117.49334,535.13356,279.91379,438.10404,101.58416,224.63
Payout Ratio6.75%23.40%40.05%56.70%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,912.0073,506.17133,983.46202,012.23278,318.66363,691.42385,007.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67,544.4668,184.6968,824.92
Year 2 PV (M)113,131.35115,286.19117,461.35
Year 3 PV (M)156,738.38161,237.77165,822.46
Year 4 PV (M)198,429.35206,060.38213,909.43
Year 5 PV (M)238,266.26249,774.61261,723.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,249,879.245,503,450.375,766,726.26
Equity Value (M)6,023,989.036,303,994.006,594,467.83
Shares Outstanding (M)350.43350.43350.43
Fair Value$17,190.52$17,989.57$18,818.49
Upside / Downside282.52%300.30%318.75%

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