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Definitive Analysis

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Tosei Corporation (8923.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14,423.94 - $29,023.67$27,199.43
Multi-Stage$4,442.16 - $4,864.44$4,649.41
Blended Fair Value$15,924.42
Current Price$1,267.00
Upside1,156.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.01%23.59%32.9224.8418.719.2420.5915.0112.4510.957.955.96
YoY Growth--32.53%32.75%102.44%-55.12%37.24%20.57%13.70%37.69%33.39%50.52%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.43%2.54%1.70%3.96%2.58%2.44%1.64%2.08%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,152.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,828.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,324.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,830.601,769.121,061.47
Cash Retained (M)10,324.5210,324.5210,324.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,830.60-1,769.12-1,061.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,493.938,555.409,263.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.9896.9896.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share77.2788.2295.52
LTM Dividend per Share39.4839.4839.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share77.2788.2295.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend116.75127.70134.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14,423.94$27,199.43$29,023.67
Upside / Downside1,038.43%2,046.76%2,190.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,152.9915,072.9316,052.6817,096.1018,207.3519,390.8219,972.55
Payout Ratio27.05%39.64%52.23%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,828.475,974.988,384.3711,081.7314,094.3317,451.7418,474.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,565.265,618.025,670.77
Year 2 PV (M)7,273.937,412.477,552.33
Year 3 PV (M)8,954.799,211.859,473.78
Year 4 PV (M)10,608.1911,016.1511,435.77
Year 5 PV (M)12,234.4612,825.3913,438.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)386,158.20404,809.79424,175.22
Equity Value (M)430,794.84450,893.67471,746.80
Shares Outstanding (M)96.9896.9896.98
Fair Value$4,442.16$4,649.41$4,864.44
Upside / Downside250.60%266.96%283.93%

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