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Definitive Analysis

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Keihanshin Building Co., Ltd. (8818.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,201.97 - $5,498.72$3,304.02
Multi-Stage$2,362.17 - $2,592.51$2,475.17
Blended Fair Value$2,889.60
Current Price$1,639.00
Upside76.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.30%9.28%37.6436.1339.2234.4930.9026.4621.5319.3418.2617.15
YoY Growth--4.17%-7.90%13.74%11.62%16.78%22.89%11.33%5.89%6.48%10.73%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.11%3.40%2.63%2.27%1.91%2.14%2.12%2.61%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,932.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)464.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,467.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)986.49616.56369.94
Cash Retained (M)4,467.984,467.984,467.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-986.49-616.56-369.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,481.493,851.434,098.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share71.4279.0184.07
LTM Dividend per Share9.539.539.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share71.4279.0184.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend80.9588.5493.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Fair Value$2,201.97$3,304.02$5,498.72
Upside / Downside34.35%101.59%235.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,932.475,131.545,338.645,554.105,778.266,011.466,191.80
Payout Ratio9.42%25.53%41.65%57.77%73.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)464.481,310.262,223.553,208.424,269.175,410.315,727.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)1,214.771,226.561,238.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,911.271,948.551,986.18
Year 3 PV (M)2,556.842,632.012,708.64
Year 4 PV (M)3,154.223,278.473,406.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,706.033,889.394,079.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,600.20107,676.64112,952.06
Equity Value (M)115,143.32120,651.62126,371.53
Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
Fair Value$2,362.17$2,475.17$2,592.51
Upside / Downside44.12%51.02%58.18%

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