Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Company Limited (8095.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.37 - $0.54$0.45
Multi-Stage$0.61 - $0.67$0.64
Blended Fair Value$0.55
Current Price$0.56
Upside-1.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---86.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%14.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.409.625.77
Cash Retained (M)67.3567.3567.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.40-9.62-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.9557.7261.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,514.461,514.461,514.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.37$0.45$0.54
Upside / Downside-33.21%-18.61%-3.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.9876.2175.4574.7073.9573.2175.41
Payout Ratio12.52%28.01%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6421.3532.8344.0855.0965.8969.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.4419.6419.84
Year 2 PV (M)27.2127.7728.34
Year 3 PV (M)33.2734.3035.35
Year 4 PV (M)37.8639.4341.05
Year 5 PV (M)41.2243.3745.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)762.56802.27843.62
Equity Value (M)921.57966.781,013.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,514.461,514.461,514.46
Fair Value$0.61$0.64$0.67
Upside / Downside9.36%14.72%20.30%

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