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Definitive Analysis

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LINTEC Corporation (7966.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,707.56 - $25,140.74$9,944.90
Multi-Stage$5,390.58 - $5,906.53$5,643.74
Blended Fair Value$7,794.32
Current Price$3,640.00
Upside114.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.68%7.55%96.0289.8996.0084.2884.1384.1377.6271.1464.6557.12
YoY Growth--6.83%-6.36%13.90%0.18%0.00%8.39%9.11%10.03%13.18%23.24%
Dividend Yield--3.25%2.61%4.23%3.67%3.49%3.29%3.33%2.21%2.41%2.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,589.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,781.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,808.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,517.801,573.63944.18
Cash Retained (M)5,808.005,808.005,808.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,517.80-1,573.63-944.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,290.204,234.384,863.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.9466.9466.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share49.1563.2672.66
LTM Dividend per Share101.30101.30101.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share49.1563.2672.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend150.45164.55173.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$5,707.56$9,944.90$25,140.74
Upside / Downside56.80%173.21%590.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,589.0013,166.9513,771.4214,403.6515,064.9115,756.5216,229.22
Payout Ratio53.86%61.09%68.32%75.55%82.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,781.008,043.909,408.4610,881.3512,469.6614,180.8715,012.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)7,493.307,565.637,637.97
Year 2 PV (M)8,164.548,322.938,482.84
Year 3 PV (M)8,796.369,053.579,315.74
Year 4 PV (M)9,390.349,758.2110,136.80
Year 5 PV (M)9,948.0010,437.5210,946.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)317,057.94332,659.64348,869.56
Equity Value (M)360,850.48377,797.51395,389.03
Shares Outstanding (M)66.9466.9466.94
Fair Value$5,390.58$5,643.74$5,906.53
Upside / Downside48.09%55.05%62.27%

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