Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Genii Ideas Co., Ltd. (7631.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.72 - $68.90$55.97
Multi-Stage$100.04 - $110.10$104.97
Blended Fair Value$80.47
Current Price$140.00
Upside-42.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%3.125.837.771.090.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---46.56%-24.94%611.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.93%5.21%6.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3711.486.89
Cash Retained (M)47.9547.9547.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.37-11.48-6.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.5836.4741.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8618.8618.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.571.932.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.332.332.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.571.932.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.904.264.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$44.72$55.97$68.90
Upside / Downside-68.06%-60.02%-50.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.8790.9590.0489.1488.2587.3789.99
Payout Ratio47.81%56.25%64.68%73.12%81.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9251.1658.2465.1871.9878.6383.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)47.5348.0248.50
Year 2 PV (M)50.2851.3152.35
Year 3 PV (M)52.2853.9055.55
Year 4 PV (M)53.6455.8758.16
Year 5 PV (M)54.4557.2960.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,628.711,713.521,801.83
Equity Value (M)1,886.901,979.912,076.64
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8618.8618.86
Fair Value$100.04$104.97$110.10
Upside / Downside-28.54%-25.02%-21.36%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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