Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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OrbusNeich Medical Group Holdings Limited (6929.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.63 - $0.89$0.76
Multi-Stage$0.93 - $1.02$0.97
Blended Fair Value$0.86
Current Price$0.51
Upside69.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.889.925.95
Cash Retained (M)68.7868.7868.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.88-9.92-5.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.9058.8562.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)828.15828.15828.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.63$0.76$0.89
Upside / Downside23.35%48.69%74.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.3978.6077.8177.0376.2675.5077.77
Payout Ratio13.37%28.70%44.02%59.35%74.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.6222.5534.2545.7256.9567.9571.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.3020.5120.71
Year 2 PV (M)27.7428.3128.89
Year 3 PV (M)33.3334.3635.41
Year 4 PV (M)37.3638.9140.50
Year 5 PV (M)40.1242.2144.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)607.43639.06671.99
Equity Value (M)766.28803.35841.89
Shares Outstanding (M)828.15828.15828.15
Fair Value$0.93$0.97$1.02
Upside / Downside82.10%90.91%100.07%

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