Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Neway CNC Equipment (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. (688697.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.67 - $168.17$157.60
Multi-Stage$24.98 - $27.32$26.13
Blended Fair Value$91.87
Current Price$15.22
Upside503.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS60.42%0.00%0.580.420.240.000.010.050.060.050.000.00
YoY Growth--39.47%73.65%5,773.16%-63.59%-79.49%-2.77%20.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.16%2.93%1.35%0.04%0.07%0.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)303.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.7737.9822.79
Cash Retained (M)100.87100.87100.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.77-37.98-22.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1062.8878.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)359.33359.33359.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.67$157.60$168.17
Upside / Downside351.16%935.49%1,004.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)303.86323.61344.64367.04390.90416.31428.80
Payout Ratio66.80%71.44%76.08%80.72%85.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.99231.20262.21296.28333.68374.68396.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)214.97217.01219.04
Year 2 PV (M)226.69231.01235.37
Year 3 PV (M)238.17245.01251.97
Year 4 PV (M)249.40258.99268.86
Year 5 PV (M)260.39272.97286.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,788.158,164.328,554.89
Equity Value (M)8,977.779,389.309,816.16
Shares Outstanding (M)359.33359.33359.33
Fair Value$24.98$26.13$27.32
Upside / Downside64.16%71.68%79.49%

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